Yidio Oscars 2012 Predictions: Who Will Win Best Actress?

In the Yidio Oscars Spotlight, we take a look at the key races at this year's Academy Awards. Today we look at the Best Actress Category, where veterans mix with relative newcomers for a close race.

Best Actress

This may be the toughest acting category to call, with each performer having at least a bit of a chance of winning. The question is this: will it be a newcomer, or a veteran?

Past Winners

Though current nominee Meryl Streep has been nominated four times in the past six years (and another 10 times before that), she has only won the award once, back in the 1980's for "Sophie's Choice."

Since 2000, we have seen six actresses win the award for a role in a biopic: Julia Roberts in "Erin Brockovich," Reese Witherspoon in "Walk the Line," Helen Mirren in "The Queen," Nicole Kidman in "The Hours," Marion Cotillard in "La Vie En Rose," and Sandra Bullock in "The Blind Side."

Last year saw Natalie Portman winning for a fictional role, as the lead in "Black Swan."

The Nominees

Viola Davis - "The Help"

Rooney Mara - "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"

Glenn Close - "Albert Nobbs"

Michelle Williams - "My Week with Marilyn"

Meryl Streep - "The Iron Lady"

What Critics are Saying

The talent in this category is overwhelming. Everyone from the veteran Streep to the newcomer Mara gave remarkable performances this year, making this one tough to call.

However, the chances of Mara winning are slim, considering the competition. Same goes for Close, who is also hurt by the general lack of a reaction to "Albert Nobbs" as a whole film.

Things get a little more difficult to predict when you consider the trio of Williams, Streep and Davis. Williams won the Golden Globe, but was in a separate category from Streep and Davis, and Streep won out over Davis there. At the SAG awards, all three were nominated but Davis took the prize. At the BAFTAs, the award went to Streep. That run allows us to fairly safely say that Williams won't win, but who will take home the Oscar between the neck-and-neck Streep and Davis?

Furthermore, if Academy members look past the performance and take past years at the awards into account, things get even muddier. Streep has been nominated 14 times and only won once, so there may be a temptation to give her another. But in the history of the Oscars there has only been one black actress to win this award, and that's Halle Berry; movies like "The Help" don't come along often, so there may be a temptation to award Davis as well.

Prediction

Look for Davis to sneak away with this one, but be warned: the split is close to 50-50 here, so it might be Meryl.