Is 'Pirates 4' the Sign of End Times for 3D?

When "Avatar" came out in late 2009, a whole new revenue stream suddenly opened up. Sure, it'd be more expensive and technologically complex, but throwing 3D into the mix allowed studios to charge more at the box office while telling audiences they were getting something they couldn't get at home. Of course, 3D TV came out soon after and changed all that, but compared to the prices of a new set, a $3-$4 surcharge on a movie ticket suddenly didn't look so bad.

Well, now even that's looking a little dismal. In a report issued Monday, analyst Richard Greenfield of BTIG came to the conclusion that "Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides" would have made more money if it had been released on more 2D screens.

The full report is password-protected, but both The Wrap and Deadline have good summaries of it.

Some boring numbers stuff to get through first. Greenfield found that 38% of the $90 million box office came from non-IMAX 3D despite those screens accounting for 46% of the film's play.

He notes that the numbers were much higher for 3D showings of "Shrek Forever After" and "How to Train Your Dragon" this time last year. He thinks consumers are increasingly uncertain that the price is really worth it, noting that in a Regal theater in Alabama, a child's ticket for a 3D movie on a Friday afternoon will cost $11, compared to $7.50 for a regular 2D movie.

There are problems with such comparisons between animated and live action films. Since animation presents an exaggerated reality from the start, it's easier to accept 3D.

But we know what real life looks like, and 3D in a live action film still doesn't present anything similar to the reality we're used to seeing. So while customers might reject 3D in "Pirates of the Caribbean," it's still possible that they'll come out in droves for "Kung-Fu Panda 2: The Kaboom of Doom" this weekend. If that doesn't happen, I think Greenfield might still have a case.

Of course, it's possible that fewer people just wanted to see another "Pirates of the Caribbean" film at all, regardless of how many dimensions of piracy it presented. The entertainment business, as always, is the least reliable business. As much as studios might think they have the customer figured out, screenwriter William Goldman's famous saying applies now as always - "Nobody knows anything."

What do you all think? Are you sick of 3D, or would you be sad to see it pass?