New Movies October 7: A Girl, a Nation, and Middle School

So far this fall, the position of box-office champ has had a revolving door, with only Sully being able to hold on to the top spot for more than one week. That trend is probably going to continue this week, because one of the week's new movies is likely to take the number-one slot away from last week's winner, Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children.

The week's first new wide release, and the one most likely to succeed, is The Girl on the Train. This one is a drama/thriller starring Emily Blunt, and it's based on a best-selling novel. Predictions for the movie's opening weekend gross range all the way from $18 million to $30 million or even more. Poor reviews ahead of release suggest that the actual number will be closer to the low end of the range, but even that should be enough to bump Miss Peregrine into, at least, second place.

The week's second new wide release is The Birth of a Nation, a Civil War-era drama from director/star Nate Parker. At one time, this one looked like an Oscar favorite, but enthusiasm surrounding the film seems to have cooled significantly. At any rate, this is not the kind of film that very often draws a crowd, so it's unlikely to pull in even $10 million.

Even less likely to break the $10-million mark is Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life.This adaptation of a kids' book is generating very little advance excitement, and with competition from Miss Peregrine, it doesn't stand much of a chance.