New Movies June 24: Aliens and Sharks and McConaughey

This weekend sees several new movie releases entering theaters that are already crowded with high-profile hold-overs. When the dust clears at the end of the weekend, there might be a new number-one film, or there might not.

The biggest new release this week is Independence Day: Resurgence. Yes, the original Independence Day was one of the biggest films of the 1990s, but it was released 20 years ago and hasn't achieved the kind of classic status that other late-20th-century hits have. A lack of social media buzz suggests that this sequel will not be a blockbuster, and observers are predicting an opening-weekend take of somewhere between $50 and $75 million. That will probably be enough to take first place for the week, but if Finding Dory holds particularly well, the Pixar fish might win the battle for the second week in a row.

The next big new release is Free State of Jones, a Civil War drama starring Matthew McConaughey. This one could attract older audiences, and if it's lucky, it could make its way into the top five. It's getting across-the-board bad reviews, though, so it might struggle to win over audiences.

A third new release is The Shallows, a thriller with Blake Lively as a surfer being menaced by a hungry shark. This one is shooting for the appeal of both Jaws and Open Water, but it's likely to have a hard time making its presence felt in crowded theaters.

A fourth film, The Neon Demon, will go into relatively wide release this weekend. It's a horror film about the fashion industry starring Elle Fanning; it's getting mixed reviews and shouldn't be much of a factor in the week's box-office race.