Will 'Hunger Games' Earn More Money Than 'Breaking Dawn?'

Fans can argue all day whether "Twilight" or "The Hunger Games" is better, or whether the two should even be compared to each other in the first place. But when it comes to box office receipts, we can declare a clear winner in which movie is more popular... and it's looking like "The Hunger Games" might be the victor.

The movie, which releases in a little more than a week, is tracking to become the biggest March release in history, beating out the recent remake of "Alice in Wonderland." More than that, though, the movie is tracking to challenge "The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 1" in terms of ticket sales on its opening weekend.

"Breaking Dawn" opened last November to a huge $138.1 million, making it the fifth largest domestic opening of all time. Originally, "Hunger Games" was tracking for somewhere between $70 million and $100 million, a fair estimate for a March movie of this size and scope. However, with the huge run on presale tickets and the increasing buzz for the film, estimates are now much higher... the movie is tracking better than "Breaking Dawn did before its release.

"Hunger Games" might easily break $100 million in its first weekend, especially considering how kind 2012 has been to movies thus far (heck, if "The Lorax" made $70 mil its first weekend...), but it will need a big push to get past $138.1 mil. But "Hunger Games" has a secret weapon that "Breaking Dawn" doesn't: male viewers.

According to THR, "Hunger Games" has nearly three times as much interest from male viewers than "Breaking Dawn" did, with 28% of males under 25 interested (as opposed to just 10% for the "Twilight" sequel) and 20% of males over 25 interested (against 8% for "Breaking Dawn").

Just one more metric remains that could help "Hunger Games" take that fifth highest opening weekend spot: reviews. If early reviews and word of mouth paint "Hunger Games" as a good movie (as opposed to the usual panning that all the "Twilight" movies get), that could be the extra push to make it a serious hit.

So far, the buzz from the premiere is positive, with the likes of "Glee" star Darren Criss and Nerdist podcaster Chris Hardwick giving the flick two thumbs up:

In short, The Hunger Games was great. They did an awesome job. Fun at the premiere tonight with @JoeyRichter … say.ly/ups1zko

— Darren Criss (@DarrenCriss) March 13, 2012

I gotta say, the Hunger Games was really fun! @lawrencejenn was TERRIFIC. & who doesn't love The Tucc? (unofficial Stanley Tucci nickname)

— Chris Hardwick (@nerdist) March 13, 2012