'Doctor Strange' Battles 'Downton Abbey' in Theaters This Weekend

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness is almost certain to lose its spot at the top of the box office charts next weekend when Top Gun: Maverick debuts. But the Marvel movie isn't even guaranteed to stay on top this weekend as it faces the period sequel Downton Abbey: A New Era. If Doctor Strange's audience declines as much as it did last weekend and Downton Abbey lives up to expectations, the race could be close. Read on for details.

Via Box Office Mojo.

After two weeks dominated almost entirely by Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, we get some new blood this weekend with the sequel to Focus’ specialty box office blockbuster Downton Abbey and A24’s latest with genre auteur Alex Garland, Men. Neither will have the sort of fireworks we hope for in May, and Doctor Strange should rule the roost once again in its third weekend, but there’s enough to keep audiences coming until Top Gun: Maverick swoops in next weekend and takes the top spot and the premium screens.

Despite having the best opening of the year, 40% ahead of The Batman, Strange 2 ended up falling behind the Caped Crusader’s reboot in the second weekend gross ($66.5 million compared to $61.7 million). The Marvel film still has a good lead on the DC film when comparing the post-second weekend cumes and it will probably catch up to it to become the year’s top grosser ($369 million is the number to beat), but that is looking less certain than a week ago and the $400 million milestone, which would make it a top 10 MCU grosser, is looking far less likely.

Much will be determined by this weekend and whether the film has another good sized dropoff or if it stabilizes. Spider-Man: No Way Home plummeted 67.5% in weekend two, down about the same as Multiverse of Madness, but it followed that with astonishing holds for months, with only one weekend falling more than 40% until April. This is unlikely given the phenomenal word of mouth on Spidey and the more mixed word of mouth on Strange 2, and the drops in the 40’s that The Batman had in weekends three through seven also look like a long shot.

Its closest MCU comps are Captain America: Civil War and Iron Man 3, which both opened smaller but had bigger second weekends than Multiverse of Madness, though the second week weekday numbers and the 12 day cumes for all three are running neck in neck. Those two films finished at $408 and $409 million, and we’ll see this weekend if Multiverse can meet their $32.9 and $35.8 million weekend three grosses. Either way, crossing $300 million in 12 days is certainly a Marvel-ous feat, and even if it has a franchise low multiplier of 2, that's still an outstanding finish of $374.8 million, even if it looks disappointing compared to the opening. Globally it is looking even better. It has already passed The Batman in its overseas numbers and this weekend will cross the DC film’s $768 million worldwide total to become the year’s top grosser.

There is actually a chance that Doctor Strange 2 misses the top spot at the domestic box office this weekend. If Downton Abbey: A New Era is able to live up to its predecessor’s $31 million debut, that would put it above Strange 2’s gross if it drops 50%. Both films may end up higher or lower, but it is certainly possible for the sophomore film outing of the Abbey-verse to beat the Multiverse. With that said, these chances are slim, though Downton Abbey 2 should still invigorate the specialty box office and will at least be the biggest non-MCU opener since The Bad Guys four weeks ago and possibly since Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore five weeks ago.

Get the rest of the story at Box Office Mojo.