Will 'Avatar' Sequel Turn a Profit?

Avatar: The Way of Water was one of the biggest movie hits of 2022, but it was far from the game-changing blockbuster that its studio and theater owners were hoping for. The question now is whether the sequel will turn a profit and pave the way for more mega-budget sequels in the future. The New Year's weekend shed some new light on the question. Read on for details.

Via Box Office Mojo.

There’s no denying that 2022 was not a great year at the box office. The domestic cume for the entire year came to $7.37 billion, down considerably from 2019’s $11.36 billion, and by pre-pandemic standards it was the worst year since 1999. Yes, it was up 64% from 2021’s $4.48 billion cume, but 2021 was largely a dud year until the Memorial Day weekend “reopening.” Comparing just June through December, this year looks like less of an improvement with $4.67 billion for the final seven months compared to 2021’s $3.84 billion. Much of that improvement came from a strong summer, and the lead evaporates away if you compare September through December, with 2021’s cume coming to $2.435 billion, ahead of 2022’s $2.096 billion.

We can only hope that 2023 brings greater box office fortunes, but for now we can celebrate that 2022 ended on a positive note, at least relatively. The overall box office this weekend came to $98.7 million, ahead of last weekend’s $94.7 million nearly on par with the previous year’s final weekend (December 31-Jan 2) cume of $98.9 million (note that no weekend since mid-November has beat 2021’s corresponding weekend, though that could change with the actuals). It’s still far from pre-pandemic norms (2019’s final weekend brought in $197 million), largely because just a few films are driving the box office right now (the top two titles made up 80% of the weekend cume), but the solid to strong performances of inpidual titles and a rebound from the lackluster Christmas weekend is something to feel good about as we head into the new year.

Of course, the dominant force at the box office is Avatar: The Way of Water which is up 0.2% from last weekend for a third weekend of $63.4 million. That gives The Way of Water the fourth best third weekend of all time, and the $422 million cume (and with Monday estimates that’s $441 million) means it has already grossed over three times its opening weekend and is ahead of Top Gun: Maverick at the same point in its release ($395 million). Internationally the film grew 4% over last weekend, bumping the global cume to $1.397 billion million. The last time we saw legs like this on a massive winter blockbuster was, appropriately enough, 13 years ago with the release of the first Avatar.

Whether or not the spectacular holds continue, the film has already made a killing, and with the Monday estimates it has passed Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’s $440 million domestic cume to become the second highest domestic grosser of 2022. More impressively, The Way of Water is also just days off from becoming 2022’s highest grossing film worldwide, surpassing Top Gun: Maverick’s $1.49 billion cume.

Get the rest of the story at Box Office Mojo.