'Avatar' Will Rule the Christmas Weekend

Avatar: The Way of Water had a somewhat disappointing debut last weekend, and it faces a big challenge in its second weekend, as the Christmas holiday is going to get in the way of ticket sales. But even though the long-delayed sequel isn't living up to expectations and likely won't be as big a hit as its predecessor, it's still the biggest movie in otherwise quiet theaters. Read on for details.

Via Box Office Mojo.

The holiday season is in full swing, with Christmas falling this Sunday and a few new releases in store for the busy end-of-the-year movie-going rush. This weekend will likely be a notch smaller than last year’s $144 million Christmas-weekend haul, and like last year the three-day numbers will be depressed by having the soft movie-going day of Christmas Eve fall over the weekend. Still, Avatar: The Way of Water should lead a relatively strong finish to the year (remember the overall box office was a brutally low $57.6 million just two weekends ago).

While the newcomers Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Babylon, and Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody all have potential, as does the expansion of The Whale, Avatar: The Way of Water remains the major box office story of this weekend and many weekends to come. James Cameron’s expensive sci-fi epic certainly needs strong holds after its $134 million opening to recoup what is said to be a Pandora-sized budget (Variety is pegging it at $350 million, and Cameron claims the break-even point is upwards of $2 billion worldwide), and only time will tell if it gets there. Through Tuesday it is at $169 million domestic and $556 million worldwide, and a good comp for the weekend is Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, which led the box office the last time Christmas fell on a Sunday in 2016. That film similarly opened the pre-Christmas weekend, and it launched to a tune of $155 million before a 59% decline brought it to $64 million for its second weekend and $96.1 million for the Friday through Monday (December 23-26) four-day cume. Such a gross would put Avatar: TWOW at a 52% decline in its second weekend and a cume approaching $300 million by Monday.

Given the weekend placement of Christmas Eve this year, the sophomore weekend of Avatar 2 will almost surely fall below that of the first Avatar, which followed up its $77 million opening (which was December 18-20, 2009) with an astonishing $75.6 million second weekend. The sequel should run close to its predecessor on a day-by-day basis though, at least for now, and the weekdays thus far are similar (Avatar did $16.4 million on its first Monday and $16.1 million on its first Tuesday, while The Way of Water respectively did $16.3 million and $18.3 million). Of course, TWOW opened much larger so these are steeper drops from the weekend, but they’re still great numbers by normal movie standards. The film’s first Monday is the year’s second best after Top Gun: Maverick ($33.8 million, and note that was Memorial Day), and the Tuesday gross is the year’s best. These weekday numbers are running closely alongside Rogue One’s $17.6 million gross from both its first Monday and Tuesday.

Get the rest of the story at Box Office Mojo.