Yidio Oscars Spotlight: Best Picture
by Andy Neuenschwander
In the Yidio Oscars Spotlight, we take a look at the key races at this year's Academy Awards. Now, for the biggest prize of the evening: Best Picture.
Past Winners
The Best Picture category can be a controversial one, as so many different factors enter the equation in determining a winner. Case in point, many found a win for "Gladiator" in 2000 to be a bit of a surprise, and when "Crash" won in 2005, there was a mild uproar. The competition wasn't especially fierce in those years, but neither film really compared historically to other Best Picture winners.
After all, this is the category that honored "The Godfather", "All About Eve" and "Casablanca". The rest of the decade brought us winners like the perfect-record "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King", indie hits "Slumdog Millionaire" and "The Hurt Locker," and slight upset "No Country for Old Men", which beat out "There WIll Be Blood."
Last year's Oscars marked the expansion of the Best Picture category to ten films instead of five, opening up the nomination pool to more popular mainstream films like "The Blind Side" and "District 9" and different genres like animation, as "Up" earned a nomination last year as well.
The Nominees
What Critics are Saying
So far on the awards circuit, a win has gone to "The Social Network" (at the Golden Globes) and to "The King's Speech" (BAFTA awards). In terms of critical praise and public opinion, those two seem to be the top choices for the award. Though "The King's Speech" won more recently at the BAFTAs, the fact that a British film about a British king won at the British film awards might not sway the Academy at all, so the momentum could be in either movie's favor. However, with Colin Firth winning every acting award out there and Tom Hooper recently picking up a DGA award, "The King's Speech" might have a bit of an extra push.
The other nominees shouldn't be counted out, though. "The Fighter" is seeing a late surge in popularity, bolstered by award-winning performances. "Black Swan" might be too galvanizing to win, but "The Kids Are All Right," "127 Hours," and "True Grit" are widely liked. The lack of previous awards and momentum for all of these films, though, makes their chances unlikely. "Inception" and "Toy Story 3" are the two that stand out as films that probably wouldn't have made the old five-nominee format, so chances are slim for both, although the "Toy Story 3" nomination all but guarantees it a win in Best Animated Feature.
Prediction
Odds are this one is going to come down to either "The King's Speech" or "The Social Network." It's a bit of a toss-up: "The King's Speech" might have more momentum, but "The Social Network" is a trendy pick and might be more Academy-friendly. David Fincher is likely to win Best Director as well, which might line up with the outcome. I'm going with "The King's Speech", but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see "The Social Network" take it home.